What to Expect from Canada’s 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan

Canada’s next Immigration Levels Plan, covering 2026 to 2028, is expected at the end of October. It will reveal the federal government’s targets for permanent and temporary resident admissions and provide the clearest signal yet on how Ottawa plans to balance economic needs, population growth, and public capacity over the coming years.

On This Page You Will Find

• A look back at Canada’s 2025–2027 immigration plan
• Key issues shaping the 2026–2028 framework
• Three possible target scenarios: reduced, maintained, or increased
• Shared priorities across all policy directions
• Key questions to watch as the plan is announced
• Outlook for Canada’s long-term immigration strategy

The upcoming plan comes at a time when immigration is under unprecedented scrutiny. After years of record growth, policymakers are reassessing how many newcomers Canada can realistically welcome each year without overburdening housing, infrastructure, and settlement systems, while still addressing skills shortages and demographic decline.

Looking Back: The 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan

The previous plan marked a turning point in federal immigration policy. It froze or slightly reduced permanent resident targets after several years of steady increases, citing the need for a “sustainable” pace of growth.

It also broke new ground by including indicative targets for temporary residents such as international students and work permit holders, aiming to bring their share of Canada’s population closer to pre-pandemic levels.

Economic immigration remained the foundation of the plan, while IRCC began emphasising regional distribution, system efficiency, and improved settlement outcomes.

Setting the Stage for 2026–2028

The next plan will likely reflect three key realities shaping Canadian immigration:

1. Housing and Infrastructure Pressures: With affordability challenges dominating national debate, Ottawa must demonstrate that immigration targets align with available housing, transportation, and public services.
2. Labour Market and Demographic Needs: Canada’s ageing population and shrinking workforce still make immigration a critical driver of growth. The plan may highlight strategies to fill skills shortages in healthcare, trades, and technology.
3. Public Confidence and System Reform: With Bill C-12 expected to overhaul application management, the plan could stress transparency, accountability, and new digital tools to improve processing.

Scenario 1: Reduced Immigration Targets

Under this scenario, the federal government opts for a measured reduction in annual permanent resident admissions, signalling a temporary slowdown to address capacity challenges.

Key features could include:

• Gradual decline in total PR admissions to ease housing and service pressures.
• Stricter controls on temporary residents, especially study and work permit streams.
• Focus on “quality over quantity,” favouring skilled workers, francophones, and regional matches.
• Increased coordination with provinces to ensure settlement capacity aligns with local infrastructure and employment availability.

This approach would appeal to growing public calls for restraint and could help rebuild confidence in Canada’s ability to integrate newcomers effectively. However, it risks slowing labour-force growth and may concern employers already facing persistent shortages.

Scenario 2: Maintained Immigration Targets

In a status quo scenario, Ottawa maintains current immigration levels through 2028, holding steady at roughly the same annual admissions seen under the 2025–2027 plan.

Key features could include:

• Stable permanent resident targets, maintaining predictability for provinces and employers.
• Continued emphasis on economic immigration through Express Entry, PNPs, and the Start-Up Visa.
• Moderate adjustments to temporary resident intake without drastic cuts.
• More focus on settlement support, credential recognition, and regional distribution rather than overall numbers.

This balanced path would suggest the government believes immigration is manageable at current levels if paired with strong housing and integration policies. It would preserve Canada’s global reputation for openness while allowing breathing room for systems to adapt.

Scenario 3: Increased Immigration Targets

A renewed expansion scenario would see Ottawa modestly raise annual immigration levels, betting that long-term economic gains outweigh short-term infrastructure pressures.

Key features could include:

• Incremental increases in permanent resident admissions beginning in 2027 or 2028.
• Larger allocations for economic and regional streams to meet provincial labour demands.
• Expanded francophone immigration targets outside Quebec, aligning with national bilingualism goals.
• Greater reliance on digital processing and faster credential recognition to integrate newcomers quickly.

This scenario would align with arguments from business and labour groups that higher immigration is essential for productivity and population renewal. However, it could face political resistance unless paired with visible progress on housing and infrastructure.

Common Priorities Across All Scenarios

Regardless of which path Ottawa chooses, several priorities are expected to carry through the 2026–2028 framework:

• Sustainability and Integration: More emphasis on settlement services, affordable housing coordination, and regional dispersal.
• Labour Market Alignment: Continued targeting of high-demand sectors such as healthcare, trades, and technology.
• Francophone Immigration: Stronger promotion of French-speaking immigration outside Quebec.
• Temporary Resident Management: Clearer caps, tighter study permit rules, and new pathways for workers already in Canada.
• Processing Reform: Digital transformation and new powers under Bill C-12 to reduce backlogs and cancel inactive files.

Questions to Watch When the Plan Is Released

• Will the government keep immigration near one per cent of population growth, or adjust upward or downward?
• How will temporary resident levels be balanced against permanent admissions?
• Will there be new or revised francophone and regional targets?
• How will housing, infrastructure, and public service capacity be integrated into planning?
• What signals will Ottawa send about the long-term role of immigration in economic growth?

Outlook: A Defining Test for Canada’s Immigration Strategy

The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan will serve as a defining test of how Canada balances ambition with realism.

A reduced plan would prioritise public confidence and sustainability. A maintained plan would signal stability and control. An increased plan would reaffirm immigration as the engine of national growth.

Whichever scenario unfolds, one thing is clear: immigration will remain central to Canada’s economic, demographic, and social future. The debate now turns to how much growth Canadians, and Canada’s systems, are ready to handle.

Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan: Frequently Asked Questions