Canada PM Mark Carney Avoids Election as Budget Including Immigration Plan Pass by Two Votes

On This Page You Will Find

• Details of the 170–168 budget vote
• Why MPs avoided a winter election
• Analysis of Carney’s fragile minority government
• Key elements of the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan
• Major cuts to temporary residents
• Stability in permanent resident admissions
• Frequently asked questions

Canada PM Mark Carney’s Budget Narrowly Passes

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has survived a dramatic budget vote, passing 170–168 after days of uncertainty and intense negotiations. The result prevented a winter election and secured approval for the government’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan.

The Liberals needed support or strategic abstentions from other parties because they remain short of a majority. One opposition MP voted with them, while four more abstained. Those decisions were enough to avoid an election only months after the last one.

Elizabeth May voted in favour after receiving climate commitments from Carney. Two NDP MPs abstained, saying a holiday election would not help Canadians. The Conservatives and Bloc Québécois largely opposed the budget.

Polling showed that Canadians widely opposed a winter election. Several premiers also urged Parliament to pass the budget to maintain national stability.

With the vote passed, the government will now introduce the budget implementation bill, including dozens of legislative measures and the new immigration plan.

A Sign of How Fragile Carney’s Government Has Become

The narrow result highlights the delicate position of Carney’s minority government. Winning by just two votes – and relying on abstentions rather than broad support – shows that the Liberals have little room for political missteps.

Key signs of fragility include:

• The government depends on unpredictable cooperation from multiple opposition parties
• The Liberals could fall if even a handful of MPs change their approach in future votes
• Cross-party negotiations are now essential for the government’s survival
• Carney cannot count on a consistent partner, unlike traditional minority arrangements

The abstentions from NDP MPs underline the lack of a formal arrangement between the Liberals and any opposition party. Support remains issue-by-issue, increasing the risk of a future confidence defeat.

Analysts note that minority governments often fall on budget measures or major spending bills. This close call suggests that Carney’s government may face repeated tests in the coming months, especially as economic challenges and international pressures intensify.

For now, Carney has survived. But the vote confirms that his government is governing on a knife’s edge.

The Immigration Levels Plan

The approved budget confirms the government’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which sharply reduces temporary resident admissions while maintaining steady permanent resident levels. Ottawa says the change is necessary to balance labour needs with housing and service pressures.

Sharp Cuts to Temporary Residents

Temporary resident admissions will fall significantly in 2026. Key changes include:

The aim is to reduce temporary residents to under 5 per cent of the population by 2027. Critics warn the reductions may deepen labour shortages and hurt educational institutions heavily reliant on international tuition.

Permanent Immigration Remains Stable

Permanent resident admissions will stay at 380,000 from 2026 to 2028. Priority remains on economic immigration:

Francophone immigration outside Quebec will rise to 10.5 per cent by 2028.

One-Time Regularisation Measures

The plan also includes two major one-time measures:

• Regularising 115,000 protected persons
• Transitioning up to 33,000 established temporary workers

These initiatives aim to reduce system pressure and offer stability to workers and communities.

Economic and Regional Impact

The government argues the plan strengthens long-term economic and regional outcomes. Critics warn that reduced temporary admissions may hurt sectors facing persistent labour gaps. Universities and colleges may also experience financial strain as international student numbers fall.

Whether the plan successfully balances sustainability with economic competitiveness will become clearer over the next few years.

Frequently Asked Questions