Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan is the federal government’s annual roadmap for permanent resident admissions. It sets targets by category (economic, family, refugee/humanitarian) and shapes everything from Express Entry draw sizes to Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) allocations.
As of November 2026, the current legislated plan covers 2025-2027 (announced March 2024). The next plan for 2027-2029 will be tabled in Parliament by November 1, 2026 (per the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act requirement).
This guide covers:
- Confirmed 2025-2027 targets (current law)
- Projected 2027-2029 ranges based on policy signals
- Category breakdowns with year-over-year changes
- Express Entry & PNP implications
- What applicants should do NOW
Current Plan: 2025-2027 Confirmed Targets
The Numbers (Announced March 2024, Tabled in Parliament)
| Immigration Category |
2025 Target |
2026 Target |
2027 Target |
3-Year Total |
| Economic |
281,135 |
299,165 |
309,325 |
889,625 |
| Family |
114,000 |
118,000 |
122,000 |
354,000 |
| Refugee & Humanitarian |
76,115 |
72,750 |
72,750 |
221,615 |
| Other |
8,750 |
10,085 |
10,925 |
29,760 |
| TOTAL |
480,000 |
500,000 |
515,000 |
1,495,000 |
Key Observations from 2025-2027 Plan
- Gradual increase: +20,000/year (480K → 500K → 515K)
- Economic class dominates: 60% of total admissions
- Family reunification stable: ~118K-122K/year
- Refugee numbers decline slightly after 2025 (Syria/Afghanistan operations winding down)
- “Other” category grows (includes humanitarian permits, public policy programs)
Economic Class Breakdown (2027 Target: 309,325)
| Sub-Category |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
% of Economic |
| Federal High-Skilled (FSWP, FSTP, CEC) |
110,770 |
117,500 |
121,000 |
39% |
| Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) |
110,000 |
120,000 |
125,000 |
40% |
| Quebec Skilled Workers |
31,500 |
32,000 |
32,500 |
11% |
| Atlantic Immigration Program (AIP) |
8,500 |
8,500 |
8,500 |
3% |
| Rural & Northern Immigration Pilot (RNIP) |
3,500 |
3,500 |
3,500 |
1% |
| Caregivers |
8,100 |
8,100 |
8,100 |
3% |
| Agri-Food Pilot |
1,750 |
1,750 |
1,750 |
<1% |
| Other Economic |
7,015 |
7,815 |
8,975 |
3% |
Projected 2027-2029 Plan: What to Expect
Policy Signals from IRCC & Minister Miller (2024-2026)
| Signal |
Source |
Implication for 2027-2029 |
| “Stabilize at 500K” |
Minister Miller, 2024 |
2027 target likely ~500K (down from 515K) |
| Housing affordability focus |
Budget 2024, Fall Economic Statement |
Economic class may be capped or slowed |
| Francophone immigration push |
Official Languages Action Plan |
Francophone targets increase (8-10% of total) |
| Category-based draws expansion |
IRCC 2024-2025 |
More targeted draws (healthcare, trades, French) |
| Domestic draws priority |
Ministerial instructions 2024 |
CEC & PNP draws dominate Express Entry |
| Temporary resident reduction |
2024 policy announcements |
Fewer study/work permit holders → less CEC pool pressure |
Projected 2027-2029 Targets (Based on Current Trajectory)
Disclaimer: These are projections based on policy trends. Official numbers will be confirmed in the November 1, 2026 tabling.
| Category |
2027 (Projected) |
2028 (Projected) |
2029 (Projected) |
3-Year Total |
| Economic |
295,000 |
290,000 |
285,000 |
870,000 |
| Family |
122,000 |
122,000 |
122,000 |
366,000 |
| Refugee & Humanitarian |
70,000 |
68,000 |
65,000 |
203,000 |
| Other |
13,000 |
15,000 |
18,000 |
46,000 |
| TOTAL |
500,000 |
495,000 |
490,000 |
1,485,000 |
Why a Potential Decrease from 515K to 500K?
- Housing crisis: CMHC projects 3.5M unit gap by 2030; immigration seen as demand driver
- Public opinion: Environics 2024 poll — 58% say immigration levels “too high”
- Infrastructure strain: Healthcare, transit, settlement services at capacity
- Economic absorption: Bank of Canada notes wage pressure in low-skill sectors
- International student cap: 2024 cap reduces pipeline of future CEC candidates
Category Deep-Dive: Economic, Family, Refugee
Economic Class: The Engine (60% of Admissions)
Federal High-Skilled (Express Entry) — 121,000 (2027 target)
| Program |
2027 Target |
Trend |
Notes |
| Federal Skilled Worker (FSWP) |
~35,000 |
Stable |
Category-based draws dominate |
| Canadian Experience Class (CEC) |
~55,000 |
Growing |
Domestic draws priority |
| Federal Skilled Trades (FSTP) |
~3,000 |
Stable |
Low volume, targeted draws |
| Category-Based (Healthcare, STEM, Trades, Transport, Agri-Food, French) |
~28,000 |
Rapidly growing |
6 categories as of 2024 |
2027 Express Entry Projection:
- Total ITA target: ~110,000-115,000 (some decline from 2026)
- Draw frequency: 2-3/week (category-based + general)
- CRS cut-offs: General ~490-510; Category-based ~350-430
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) — 125,000 (2027 target)
| Province/Territory |
2025 Allocation |
2026 Allocation |
2027 Projected |
| Ontario |
18,000 |
19,000 |
20,000 |
| British Columbia |
15,000 |
16,000 |
17,000 |
| Alberta |
10,000 |
10,500 |
11,000 |
| Quebec |
31,500 |
32,000 |
32,500 |
| Manitoba |
6,000 |
6,500 |
7,000 |
| Saskatchewan |
5,000 |
5,500 |
6,000 |
| Nova Scotia |
3,500 |
4,000 |
4,500 |
| New Brunswick |
2,500 |
3,000 |
3,500 |
| Other (PEI, NL, Territories) |
8,500 |
8,500 |
9,000 |
Key PNP Trends for 2027:
- Ontario & BC dominate (60% of PNP allocations)
- Alberta surging — tech & energy sector demand
- Atlantic provinces growing — AIP + PNP combo
- French-speaking streams expanding in ON, NB, MB
Quebec: Separate But Significant
| Year |
Quebec Target |
% of Canada Total |
| 2025 |
31,500 |
6.6% |
| 2026 |
32,000 |
6.4% |
| 2027 |
32,500 |
6.3% |
Quebec sets its own levels (Canada-Quebec Accord). 2027 target reflects gradual increase.
Family Class: Stable & Predictable (24% of Admissions)
| Sub-Category |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
Notes |
| Spouses/Partners/Children |
82,000 |
84,000 |
86,000 |
Core family reunification |
| Parents & Grandparents (PGP) |
32,000 |
34,000 |
36,000 |
Growing — lottery + intake management |
PGP 2027 Outlook:
- Target: 36,000 (up from 32,000 in 2025)
- Lottery system continues — “Interest to Sponsor” form opens ~Jan 2027
- Super Visa alternative — 5-year multiple entry, no lottery
- Processing target: 12 months (currently ~24-36 months)
Refugee & Humanitarian: Declining Slightly (14% of Admissions)
| Sub-Category |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
Trend |
| Protected Persons in Canada |
25,000 |
25,000 |
25,000 |
Stable |
| Resettled Refugees (GAR/PSR/BVOR) |
35,000 |
32,000 |
30,000 |
Declining |
| Other Humanitarian |
16,115 |
15,750 |
17,750 |
Variable |
Drivers of Decline:
- Syria/Iraq operations largely complete
- Afghanistan special measures winding down (2023-2025 cohort)
- Focus shifting to integration over new resettlement
Express Entry Implications for 2027-2029
Draw Composition Shift (2024 → 2027 Projected)
| Draw Type |
2024 Actual |
2025 Projected |
2027 Projected |
| General (FSWP/CEC/FSTP) |
40% |
30% |
20% |
| Category-Based: French |
15% |
20% |
25% |
| Category-Based: Healthcare |
10% |
15% |
18% |
| Category-Based: STEM |
10% |
12% |
12% |
| Category-Based: Trades |
8% |
10% |
10% |
| Category-Based: Transport |
5% |
5% |
5% |
| Category-Based: Agri-Food |
2% |
3% |
3% |
| PNP-Specific |
10% |
5% |
5% |
CRS Cut-Off Predictions for 2027
| Draw Type |
2024 Range |
2027 Predicted Range |
Strategy |
| General |
490-520 |
500-530 |
Maximize CRS: French, sibling, job offer |
| French Proficiency |
336-380 |
350-390 |
Best ROI — learn French to CLB 7+ |
| Healthcare Occupations |
350-400 |
360-410 |
Check NOC eligibility |
| STEM Occupations |
380-420 |
390-430 |
Check NOC eligibility |
| Trades Occupations |
380-430 |
390-440 |
Check NOC eligibility |
Category-Based Draws: The New Normal
As of 2024, IRCC conducts draws under 6 categories (expandable by Ministerial Instruction):
| Category |
Eligible NOCs (Examples) |
2027 Draw Frequency |
| French Language |
All occupations (CLB 7+) |
Weekly |
| Healthcare |
35 NOCs (doctors, nurses, pharmacists, etc.) |
Bi-weekly |
| STEM |
24 NOCs (engineers, IT, scientists, etc.) |
Bi-weekly |
| Trades |
10 NOCs (carpenters, electricians, plumbers, etc.) |
Monthly |
| Transport |
10 NOCs (truck drivers, pilots, etc.) |
Monthly |
| Agriculture/Agri-Food |
5 NOCs (farm supervisors, butchers, etc.) |
Quarterly |
Pro Tip: French category draws have the lowest CRS cut-offs (often 350-390). Investing 6-12 months to reach CLB 7 French is the single highest-ROI move for most candidates.
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) Allocations
2027 PNP Allocation by Province (Projected)
| Province |
2027 Allocation |
Top Streams |
Key 2027 Changes |
| Ontario (OINP) |
20,000 |
Human Capital Priorities, French-Speaking Skilled Worker, Skilled Trades |
Tech draws prioritized; French stream expanded |
| British Columbia (BC PNP) |
17,000 |
Skills Immigration (Tech, Healthcare, Childcare), Express Entry BC |
Tech pilot permanent; healthcare stream expanded |
| Alberta (AAIP) |
11,000 |
Alberta Opportunity Stream, Accelerated Tech Pathway, Rural Renewal |
Energy transition occupations added |
| Manitoba (MPNP) |
7,000 |
Skilled Worker Overseas, Skilled Worker in MB, International Education |
Francophone target: 500/year |
| Saskatchewan (SINP) |
6,000 |
International Skilled Worker (EOI), Hard-to-Fill Skills, Health Talent |
Agriculture tech occupations prioritized |
| Nova Scotia (NSNP) |
4,500 |
Labour Market Priorities, Physicians, Occupations in Demand |
Healthcare & trades focus |
| New Brunswick (NBPNP) |
3,500 |
Strategic Initiative, Skilled Worker, Atlantic Immigration Program |
French bilingual target: 30% |
| Other (PEI, NL, YT, NT, NU) |
9,000 combined |
Various |
RNIP communities expanding |
PNP vs Express Entry: Strategic Choice for 2027
| Factor |
Express Entry (Federal) |
PNP (Provincial) |
| Processing Time |
6-8 months (CEC) |
12-18 months + federal stage |
| CRS Requirement |
High (490+ general) |
Low (often 300-400) + provincial criteria |
| Job Offer Required |
No (but adds 50-200 CRS) |
Often yes (varies by stream) |
| Provincial Tie Required |
No |
Yes — intent to reside |
| Flexibility |
Live anywhere in Canada |
Must live in nominating province (initially) |
| 2027 Outlook |
More competitive |
More allocations, more streams |
Recommendation for 2027: If your CRS < 480, prioritize PNP. If CRS > 500 + French/healthcare/trades, Express Entry category-based.
Regional & Francophone Targets
Francophone Immigration Outside Quebec (Official Target: 8% by 2026, 10% by 2029)
| Year |
Francophone Target (Outside QC) |
Actual/Projected |
| 2024 |
6% |
~5.5% |
| 2025 |
7% |
~6.5% |
| 2026 |
8% |
~7.5% |
| 2027 |
8.5% |
~8% |
| 2028 |
9% |
~8.5% |
| 2029 |
10% |
~9% |
Provinces with Dedicated Francophone Streams (2027):
- Ontario: French-Speaking Skilled Worker (OINP)
- New Brunswick: Strategic Initiative (Francophone)
- Manitoba: Francophone Immigration Stream
- Alberta: Francophone Stream (AAIP)
- Nova Scotia: Labour Market Priorities (French)
- PEI: Francophone Stream
Regional Distribution Targets (2027 Projected)
| Region |
% of Economic Admissions |
Key Programs |
| Ontario |
42% |
OINP, Federal, AIP |
| British Columbia |
17% |
BC PNP, Federal |
| Prairies (AB, SK, MB) |
16% |
PNP, RNIP, Agri-Food |
| Quebec |
12% |
Quebec Skilled Worker |
| Atlantic |
8% |
AIP, PNP |
| Territories |
1% |
NTNP, YNP, NNP |
| Francophone (outside QC) |
4% |
Dedicated streams |
What This Means for Your Application
By Candidate Profile
1. High CRS (500+) + No French/Category Match
- Strategy: Enter Express Entry pool; wait for general draws
- Risk: CRS cut-offs rising; consider PNP as backup
- Timeline: 6-12 months to ITA
2. CRS 450-499 + French CLB 7+
- Strategy: Enter pool immediately — French category draws
- CRS needed: 350-390
- Timeline: 1-3 months to ITA
3. CRS 400-480 + Healthcare/STEM/Trades Occupation
- Strategy: Verify NOC eligibility → Enter pool → Category-based draws
- CRS needed: 360-440 (varies by category)
- Timeline: 2-6 months to ITA
4. CRS < 450 + No Category Match
- Strategy: PNP is your best path
- Target provinces: Ontario (tech), BC (tech/healthcare), Alberta (tech/energy), Atlantic (healthcare/trades)
- Timeline: 12-24 months total
5. International Student in Canada (PGWP holder)
- Strategy: CEC is your golden ticket — domestic draws prioritized
- Need: 1 year Canadian work experience (NOC 0/A/B/TEER 0/1/2/3)
- CRS boost: Canadian education + work = 30-60 extra points
- Timeline: 3-8 months to ITA
6. Spousal/Partner Sponsorship
- Strategy: Inland if in Canada (open work permit), Outland if abroad
- Processing: 12-18 months (target)
- 2027 advantage: Targets increasing (86K spouses/partners)
7. Parents/Grandparents Sponsorship
- Strategy: Submit “Interest to Sponsor” January 2027 when portal opens
- Alternative: Super Visa (5-year multi-entry, processed in weeks)
- 2027 target: 36,000 (highest ever)
Also read: Guide for New Immigrants to Quebec City (2026)
