Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan is the federal government’s annual roadmap for permanent resident admissions. It sets targets by category (economic, family, refugee/humanitarian) and shapes everything from Express Entry draw sizes to Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) allocations.
As of November 2026, the current legislated plan covers 2025-2027 (announced March 2024). The next plan for 2027-2029 will be tabled in Parliament by November 1, 2026 (per the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act requirement).
This guide covers:
- Confirmed 2025-2027 targets (current law)
- Projected 2027-2029 ranges based on policy signals
- Category breakdowns with year-over-year changes
- Express Entry & PNP implications
- What applicants should do NOW
Current Plan: 2025-2027 Confirmed Targets
The Numbers (Announced March 2024, Tabled in Parliament)
| Immigration Category | 2025 Target | 2026 Target | 2027 Target | 3-Year Total |
|---|
| Economic | 281,135 | 299,165 | 309,325 | 889,625 |
| Family | 114,000 | 118,000 | 122,000 | 354,000 |
| Refugee & Humanitarian | 76,115 | 72,750 | 72,750 | 221,615 |
| Other | 8,750 | 10,085 | 10,925 | 29,760 |
| TOTAL | 480,000 | 500,000 | 515,000 | 1,495,000 |
Key Observations from 2025-2027 Plan
- Gradual increase: +20,000/year (480K → 500K → 515K)
- Economic class dominates: 60% of total admissions
- Family reunification stable: ~118K-122K/year
- Refugee numbers decline slightly after 2025 (Syria/Afghanistan operations winding down)
- “Other” category grows (includes humanitarian permits, public policy programs)
Economic Class Breakdown (2027 Target: 309,325)
| Sub-Category | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | % of Economic |
|---|
| Federal High-Skilled (FSWP, FSTP, CEC) | 110,770 | 117,500 | 121,000 | 39% |
| Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) | 110,000 | 120,000 | 125,000 | 40% |
| Quebec Skilled Workers | 31,500 | 32,000 | 32,500 | 11% |
| Atlantic Immigration Program (AIP) | 8,500 | 8,500 | 8,500 | 3% |
| Rural & Northern Immigration Pilot (RNIP) | 3,500 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 1% |
| Caregivers | 8,100 | 8,100 | 8,100 | 3% |
| Agri-Food Pilot | 1,750 | 1,750 | 1,750 | <1% |
| Other Economic | 7,015 | 7,815 | 8,975 | 3% |
Projected 2027-2029 Plan: What to Expect
Policy Signals from IRCC & Minister Miller (2024-2026)
| Signal | Source | Implication for 2027-2029 |
|---|
| “Stabilize at 500K” | Minister Miller, 2024 | 2027 target likely ~500K (down from 515K) |
| Housing affordability focus | Budget 2024, Fall Economic Statement | Economic class may be capped or slowed |
| Francophone immigration push | Official Languages Action Plan | Francophone targets increase (8-10% of total) |
| Category-based draws expansion | IRCC 2024-2025 | More targeted draws (healthcare, trades, French) |
| Domestic draws priority | Ministerial instructions 2024 | CEC & PNP draws dominate Express Entry |
| Temporary resident reduction | 2024 policy announcements | Fewer study/work permit holders → less CEC pool pressure |
Projected 2027-2029 Targets (Based on Current Trajectory)
Disclaimer: These are projections based on policy trends. Official numbers will be confirmed in the November 1, 2026 tabling.
| Category | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 3-Year Total |
|---|
| Economic | 295,000 | 290,000 | 285,000 | 870,000 |
| Family | 122,000 | 122,000 | 122,000 | 366,000 |
| Refugee & Humanitarian | 70,000 | 68,000 | 65,000 | 203,000 |
| Other | 13,000 | 15,000 | 18,000 | 46,000 |
| TOTAL | 500,000 | 495,000 | 490,000 | 1,485,000 |
Why a Potential Decrease from 515K to 500K?
- Housing crisis: CMHC projects 3.5M unit gap by 2030; immigration seen as demand driver
- Public opinion: Environics 2024 poll — 58% say immigration levels “too high”
- Infrastructure strain: Healthcare, transit, settlement services at capacity
- Economic absorption: Bank of Canada notes wage pressure in low-skill sectors
- International student cap: 2024 cap reduces pipeline of future CEC candidates
Category Deep-Dive: Economic, Family, Refugee
Economic Class: The Engine (60% of Admissions)
Federal High-Skilled (Express Entry) — 121,000 (2027 target)
| Program | 2027 Target | Trend | Notes |
|---|
| Federal Skilled Worker (FSWP) | ~35,000 | Stable | Category-based draws dominate |
| Canadian Experience Class (CEC) | ~55,000 | Growing | Domestic draws priority |
| Federal Skilled Trades (FSTP) | ~3,000 | Stable | Low volume, targeted draws |
| Category-Based (Healthcare, STEM, Trades, Transport, Agri-Food, French) | ~28,000 | Rapidly growing | 6 categories as of 2024 |
2027 Express Entry Projection:
- Total ITA target: ~110,000-115,000 (some decline from 2026)
- Draw frequency: 2-3/week (category-based + general)
- CRS cut-offs: General ~490-510; Category-based ~350-430
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) — 125,000 (2027 target)
| Province/Territory | 2025 Allocation | 2026 Allocation | 2027 Projected |
|---|
| Ontario | 18,000 | 19,000 | 20,000 |
| British Columbia | 15,000 | 16,000 | 17,000 |
| Alberta | 10,000 | 10,500 | 11,000 |
| Quebec | 31,500 | 32,000 | 32,500 |
| Manitoba | 6,000 | 6,500 | 7,000 |
| Saskatchewan | 5,000 | 5,500 | 6,000 |
| Nova Scotia | 3,500 | 4,000 | 4,500 |
| New Brunswick | 2,500 | 3,000 | 3,500 |
| Other (PEI, NL, Territories) | 8,500 | 8,500 | 9,000 |
Key PNP Trends for 2027:
- Ontario & BC dominate (60% of PNP allocations)
- Alberta surging — tech & energy sector demand
- Atlantic provinces growing — AIP + PNP combo
- French-speaking streams expanding in ON, NB, MB
Quebec: Separate But Significant
| Year | Quebec Target | % of Canada Total |
|---|
| 2025 | 31,500 | 6.6% |
| 2026 | 32,000 | 6.4% |
| 2027 | 32,500 | 6.3% |
Quebec sets its own levels (Canada-Quebec Accord). 2027 target reflects gradual increase.
Family Class: Stable & Predictable (24% of Admissions)
| Sub-Category | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Notes |
|---|
| Spouses/Partners/Children | 82,000 | 84,000 | 86,000 | Core family reunification |
| Parents & Grandparents (PGP) | 32,000 | 34,000 | 36,000 | Growing — lottery + intake management |
PGP 2027 Outlook:
- Target: 36,000 (up from 32,000 in 2025)
- Lottery system continues — “Interest to Sponsor” form opens ~Jan 2027
- Super Visa alternative — 5-year multiple entry, no lottery
- Processing target: 12 months (currently ~24-36 months)
Refugee & Humanitarian: Declining Slightly (14% of Admissions)
| Sub-Category | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Trend |
|---|
| Protected Persons in Canada | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | Stable |
| Resettled Refugees (GAR/PSR/BVOR) | 35,000 | 32,000 | 30,000 | Declining |
| Other Humanitarian | 16,115 | 15,750 | 17,750 | Variable |
Drivers of Decline:
- Syria/Iraq operations largely complete
- Afghanistan special measures winding down (2023-2025 cohort)
- Focus shifting to integration over new resettlement
Express Entry Implications for 2027-2029
Draw Composition Shift (2024 → 2027 Projected)
| Draw Type | 2024 Actual | 2025 Projected | 2027 Projected |
|---|
| General (FSWP/CEC/FSTP) | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Category-Based: French | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Category-Based: Healthcare | 10% | 15% | 18% |
| Category-Based: STEM | 10% | 12% | 12% |
| Category-Based: Trades | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| Category-Based: Transport | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Category-Based: Agri-Food | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| PNP-Specific | 10% | 5% | 5% |
CRS Cut-Off Predictions for 2027
| Draw Type | 2024 Range | 2027 Predicted Range | Strategy |
|---|
| General | 490-520 | 500-530 | Maximize CRS: French, sibling, job offer |
| French Proficiency | 336-380 | 350-390 | Best ROI — learn French to CLB 7+ |
| Healthcare Occupations | 350-400 | 360-410 | Check NOC eligibility |
| STEM Occupations | 380-420 | 390-430 | Check NOC eligibility |
| Trades Occupations | 380-430 | 390-440 | Check NOC eligibility |
Category-Based Draws: The New Normal
As of 2024, IRCC conducts draws under 6 categories (expandable by Ministerial Instruction):
| Category | Eligible NOCs (Examples) | 2027 Draw Frequency |
|---|
| French Language | All occupations (CLB 7+) | Weekly |
| Healthcare | 35 NOCs (doctors, nurses, pharmacists, etc.) | Bi-weekly |
| STEM | 24 NOCs (engineers, IT, scientists, etc.) | Bi-weekly |
| Trades | 10 NOCs (carpenters, electricians, plumbers, etc.) | Monthly |
| Transport | 10 NOCs (truck drivers, pilots, etc.) | Monthly |
| Agriculture/Agri-Food | 5 NOCs (farm supervisors, butchers, etc.) | Quarterly |
Pro Tip: French category draws have the lowest CRS cut-offs (often 350-390). Investing 6-12 months to reach CLB 7 French is the single highest-ROI move for most candidates.
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) Allocations
2027 PNP Allocation by Province (Projected)
| Province | 2027 Allocation | Top Streams | Key 2027 Changes |
|---|
| Ontario (OINP) | 20,000 | Human Capital Priorities, French-Speaking Skilled Worker, Skilled Trades | Tech draws prioritized; French stream expanded |
| British Columbia (BC PNP) | 17,000 | Skills Immigration (Tech, Healthcare, Childcare), Express Entry BC | Tech pilot permanent; healthcare stream expanded |
| Alberta (AAIP) | 11,000 | Alberta Opportunity Stream, Accelerated Tech Pathway, Rural Renewal | Energy transition occupations added |
| Manitoba (MPNP) | 7,000 | Skilled Worker Overseas, Skilled Worker in MB, International Education | Francophone target: 500/year |
| Saskatchewan (SINP) | 6,000 | International Skilled Worker (EOI), Hard-to-Fill Skills, Health Talent | Agriculture tech occupations prioritized |
| Nova Scotia (NSNP) | 4,500 | Labour Market Priorities, Physicians, Occupations in Demand | Healthcare & trades focus |
| New Brunswick (NBPNP) | 3,500 | Strategic Initiative, Skilled Worker, Atlantic Immigration Program | French bilingual target: 30% |
| Other (PEI, NL, YT, NT, NU) | 9,000 combined | Various | RNIP communities expanding |
PNP vs Express Entry: Strategic Choice for 2027
| Factor | Express Entry (Federal) | PNP (Provincial) |
|---|
| Processing Time | 6-8 months (CEC) | 12-18 months + federal stage |
| CRS Requirement | High (490+ general) | Low (often 300-400) + provincial criteria |
| Job Offer Required | No (but adds 50-200 CRS) | Often yes (varies by stream) |
| Provincial Tie Required | No | Yes — intent to reside |
| Flexibility | Live anywhere in Canada | Must live in nominating province (initially) |
| 2027 Outlook | More competitive | More allocations, more streams |
Recommendation for 2027: If your CRS < 480, prioritize PNP. If CRS > 500 + French/healthcare/trades, Express Entry category-based.
Regional & Francophone Targets
Francophone Immigration Outside Quebec (Official Target: 8% by 2026, 10% by 2029)
| Year | Francophone Target (Outside QC) | Actual/Projected |
|---|
| 2024 | 6% | ~5.5% |
| 2025 | 7% | ~6.5% |
| 2026 | 8% | ~7.5% |
| 2027 | 8.5% | ~8% |
| 2028 | 9% | ~8.5% |
| 2029 | 10% | ~9% |
Provinces with Dedicated Francophone Streams (2027):
- Ontario: French-Speaking Skilled Worker (OINP)
- New Brunswick: Strategic Initiative (Francophone)
- Manitoba: Francophone Immigration Stream
- Alberta: Francophone Stream (AAIP)
- Nova Scotia: Labour Market Priorities (French)
- PEI: Francophone Stream
Regional Distribution Targets (2027 Projected)
| Region | % of Economic Admissions | Key Programs |
|---|
| Ontario | 42% | OINP, Federal, AIP |
| British Columbia | 17% | BC PNP, Federal |
| Prairies (AB, SK, MB) | 16% | PNP, RNIP, Agri-Food |
| Quebec | 12% | Quebec Skilled Worker |
| Atlantic | 8% | AIP, PNP |
| Territories | 1% | NTNP, YNP, NNP |
| Francophone (outside QC) | 4% | Dedicated streams |
What This Means for Your Application
By Candidate Profile
1. High CRS (500+) + No French/Category Match
- Strategy: Enter Express Entry pool; wait for general draws
- Risk: CRS cut-offs rising; consider PNP as backup
- Timeline: 6-12 months to ITA
2. CRS 450-499 + French CLB 7+
- Strategy: Enter pool immediately — French category draws
- CRS needed: 350-390
- Timeline: 1-3 months to ITA
3. CRS 400-480 + Healthcare/STEM/Trades Occupation
- Strategy: Verify NOC eligibility → Enter pool → Category-based draws
- CRS needed: 360-440 (varies by category)
- Timeline: 2-6 months to ITA
4. CRS < 450 + No Category Match
- Strategy: PNP is your best path
- Target provinces: Ontario (tech), BC (tech/healthcare), Alberta (tech/energy), Atlantic (healthcare/trades)
- Timeline: 12-24 months total
5. International Student in Canada (PGWP holder)
- Strategy: CEC is your golden ticket — domestic draws prioritized
- Need: 1 year Canadian work experience (NOC 0/A/B/TEER 0/1/2/3)
- CRS boost: Canadian education + work = 30-60 extra points
- Timeline: 3-8 months to ITA
6. Spousal/Partner Sponsorship
- Strategy: Inland if in Canada (open work permit), Outland if abroad
- Processing: 12-18 months (target)
- 2027 advantage: Targets increasing (86K spouses/partners)
7. Parents/Grandparents Sponsorship
- Strategy: Submit “Interest to Sponsor” January 2027 when portal opens
- Alternative: Super Visa (5-year multi-entry, processed in weeks)
- 2027 target: 36,000 (highest ever)
Also read: Guide for New Immigrants to Quebec City (2026)
