Quebec’s Population Declined in 2025 as Temporary Immigration Fell Sharply
Quebec recorded a slight population decline in 2025 after several years of rapid growth driven largely by immigration, according to new demographic figures released by Institut de la statistique du Québec.
The province’s population was estimated at approximately 9.03 million people on January 1, 2026 — a decrease of roughly 9,600 residents compared to the previous year.
The latest data highlights the growing impact of Canada’s efforts to reduce temporary immigration levels following the unprecedented population surge seen between 2022 and 2024.
At the same time, the report underscores Quebec’s long-term demographic challenges, including:
- An aging population
- Low fertility rates
- More deaths than births
- Slower workforce growth
- Ongoing migration losses to other provinces
The figures also show that international migration produced almost no net population growth in 2025.
Why Quebec’s Population Declined in 2025
The population decline was primarily driven by a sharp drop in temporary immigration combined with continued natural population decline.
While permanent immigration remained relatively stable, it was not enough to offset:
- Falling numbers of temporary residents
- More deaths than births
- Interprovincial migration losses
This marks a major shift from recent years, when rapid immigration growth significantly increased Quebec’s population.
Temporary Immigration Fell Sharply in Quebec
The most significant demographic change in 2025 came from a large reduction in non-permanent residents.
According to provisional estimates:
- Quebec lost approximately 51,400 non-permanent residents during 2025
- The total number of temporary residents fell from 565,450 to 514,050
Non-permanent residents include:
- International students
- Temporary foreign workers
- Asylum claimants
- Other temporary visa holders
The decline follows several years of historically high temporary immigration levels across Canada.
Both the federal government and Quebec have recently introduced policies aimed at slowing temporary immigration growth amid increasing pressure on:
- Housing affordability
- Healthcare systems
- Infrastructure
- Public services
A similar reduction in temporary resident numbers was also recorded elsewhere in Canada.
Permanent Immigration to Quebec Remained Stable
Despite the drop in temporary migration, permanent immigration to Quebec increased slightly in 2025.
The province welcomed:
- 60,150 new permanent residents in 2025
- Compared to 59,400 in 2024
The figures suggest Quebec may be shifting toward a more controlled immigration model focused on long-term permanent settlement rather than large-scale temporary migration.
However, the modest increase in permanent immigration was not sufficient to fully counteract broader demographic pressures.
Deaths Continued to Outnumber Births
Quebec recorded more deaths than births for the second consecutive year.
According to the report, the province registered:
| Demographic Indicator | 2025 Figures |
|---|---|
| Births | 78,200 |
| Deaths | 80,450 |
| Fertility Rate | 1.36 children per woman |
Although births rose slightly compared to 2024, Quebec’s fertility rate remains near historic lows.
The province’s fertility rate of 1.36 children per woman remains well below the population replacement level.
The report also noted that the average age of mothers at the birth of their first child increased again in 2025, reaching 30.2 years.
Like many developed regions worldwide, Quebec continues experiencing:
- Delayed family formation
- Lower birth rates
- Population aging
These trends place increasing pressure on long-term workforce growth and public services.
International Migration Produced Almost No Population Growth
One of the report’s most striking findings was the near disappearance of net international migration growth.
Quebec’s overall migration balance — including both international and interprovincial migration — was estimated at:
- Minus 7,150 people in 2025
International migration produced a net gain of only:
- 450 people
This is considered an unusually low figure for Quebec.
At the same time, the province continued losing residents to other parts of Canada.
Quebec Continued Losing Residents to Other Provinces
Interprovincial migration remained negative in 2025.
Quebec recorded:
- An interprovincial migration deficit of approximately 7,600 people
This means more people left Quebec for other Canadian provinces than moved into Quebec from elsewhere in Canada.
Traditionally, international immigration has helped offset:
- Low fertility rates
- Population aging
- Interprovincial migration losses
In 2025, however, that balancing effect largely disappeared.
What the Numbers Mean for Quebec Immigration Policy
The latest demographic figures are likely to intensify debate over immigration policy both in Quebec and across Canada.
Governments are currently attempting to reduce temporary resident levels after years of extremely rapid population growth.
However, the data also shows Quebec remains highly dependent on immigration to:
- Stabilize population growth
- Support labour markets
- Address workforce shortages
- Offset aging demographics
- Sustain economic growth
Without stronger migration growth, Quebec faces several long-term demographic risks:
- Slower economic expansion
- Labour shortages
- Rising healthcare costs
- Increased dependency ratios
- Greater pressure on social services
The report highlights the difficult balance policymakers now face between:
- Reducing temporary immigration levels
- Maintaining demographic stability
- Supporting economic growth
- Managing housing and infrastructure pressures
Quebec’s Demographic Challenges Are Long-Term
Even if temporary immigration rebounds in future years, Quebec still faces structural demographic challenges that extend beyond short-term migration policy.
These include:
- Persistently low fertility rates
- Aging baby boomer populations
- Rising healthcare demand
- Slower labour force growth
- Regional population decline in some communities
Immigration is therefore expected to remain a central component of Quebec’s long-term economic and demographic strategy.
How Quebec Compares to the Rest of Canada
Quebec is not alone in experiencing demographic pressures linked to aging populations and declining fertility.
Several Canadian provinces are now:
- Tightening temporary immigration policies
- Facing labour shortages
- Experiencing slower population growth
- Managing housing affordability concerns
However, Quebec’s unique immigration system and strong focus on French-language integration make its demographic situation especially significant in the national immigration debate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why Did Quebec’s Population Decline in 2025?
Quebec’s population declined mainly because temporary immigration fell sharply while deaths continued to outnumber births. International migration produced almost no net population growth, making it difficult to offset demographic pressures and migration losses to other provinces.
How Much Did Temporary Immigration Fall in Quebec?
The number of non-permanent residents in Quebec fell by approximately 51,400 people during 2025, dropping from 565,450 to 514,050 residents.
Did Permanent Immigration to Quebec Decline?
No. Permanent immigration increased slightly in 2025. Quebec welcomed 60,150 new permanent residents compared to 59,400 in 2024.
Why Are Deaths Exceeding Births in Quebec?
Quebec has a low fertility rate and an aging population. In 2025, the province recorded 80,450 deaths and 78,200 births, continuing a trend seen in many developed societies.
What Does This Mean for Canada’s Immigration Debate?
The figures highlight the challenge governments face in balancing lower temporary immigration levels with the need for long-term economic and demographic stability. Quebec remains highly dependent on immigration to support its labour force and population growth.
Final Thoughts
Quebec’s 2025 demographic report marks an important turning point after several years of exceptionally rapid population growth.
The sharp decline in temporary immigration combined with low fertility and population aging demonstrates how dependent Quebec remains on immigration to maintain demographic stability and economic growth.
As governments continue adjusting immigration policies, Quebec’s experience may become an important case study in the broader Canadian debate over population growth, housing pressures, labour shortages, and long-term economic sustainability.